India-Pakistan – Crisis in Kashmir
A deadly terror attack in the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir in April 2025 set off a major military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May which risked spiralling into full blown war.
The clashes between the two nuclear-armed neighbours were eventually defused, resulting in a ceasefire that – for now – is holding. This recent chain of events has put the larger disputed region of Kashmir, and the decades-long conflict between India and Pakistan, back in the spotlight. Observers say this is the most dangerous crisis between the two countries in decades, and that a lasting peace is critical for both regional and international stability.
Our South Asia team provides its analysis below.
The History of the Kashmir Conflict
The origins of the conflict date back to the late 1940s, when Kashmir was a princely state within British India. At the time, Kashmir had a majority Muslim population, but a Hindu ruler, the Maharaja Hari Singh. Following the partition of British India in August 1947 into India and Pakistan, Hari Singh was unsure which country Kashmir should join, and he initially wanted the state to be independent. He eventually chose to join India in October 1947, and since then approximately two thirds of Kashmir has been controlled by India (forming the Indian territory of Jammu and Kashmir), with Pakistan controlling the other third. China controls a small portion of the territory in the north and east. Both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir in full and have fought two wars over the territory, the first in 1947-1948 and the second in 1965.
There has been a significant amount of unrest in Jammu and Kashmir over the past decades, including an armed insurgency against Indian rule that began in the late 1980s. There are several militant groups currently active in the wider Kashmir region, including Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) – a Sunni Islamist group founded in the early 2000s and based in Pakistan, whose principal goal is to end Indian rule of Kashmir and merge it with Pakistan. The group is designated a global terrorist organisation by the US, the UK and others. Another group is Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), an Islamic Salafist militant group also designated as a global terrorist organization. LeT has previously been involved in numerous high-profile terrorist attacks in India, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks that saw its members launch a four-day shooting and bombing onslaught across the city which resulted in 166 deaths. The JeM too has carried out numerous attacks – notably, in 2019, a JeM suicide bomber drove a vehicle into a convoy of Indian security personnel in the Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir, killing 40 members of India’s Central Reserve Police Force.
Although many of the militant groups in Kashmir have been officially banned by Pakistan, including LeT and JeM, the Indian government has repeatedly alleged that Pakistan funds and supports them with arms, intelligence, and freedom of movement. Pakistan has consistently refuted these allegations.
Recent Events in Kashmir
On 22 April 2025, armed militants killed 26 people, the majority of them tourists, in Pahalgam, a tourist town in Jammu and Kashmir known for its picturesque scenery. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party have in recent years tried to promote India’s Kashmir region as a key tourist destination, notably after removing its autonomy in 2019 and making it a centrally administered territory. This policy appeared to be working – there were reportedly more than three million visitors in 2024. This effort has now been derailed. The April attack happened in peak season and specifically targeted Hindu tourists, differing from previous ones focused on security personnel (including the 2019 Pulwama bombing noted above).
A militant group called The Resistance Front (TRF) initially claimed responsibility for the attack in Pahalgam. Indian authorities allege TRF is a proxy for LeT and claim it is backed by Pakistan. In response to Pahalgam, India launched military strikes into Pakistan and the Pakistan-administered part of Kashmir on 7 May, claiming to have targeted terrorist camps. Pakistani authorities, however, claimed that the Indian military targeted mosques and critical infrastructure and killed civilians.
In the following days, the conflict escalated: both countries’ militaries struck across borders claiming they had hit the other’s military bases. Notably, in line with previous periods of heightened tensions between both countries, media outlets from both sides have published claims of military action that were later proven to be exaggerated, unverified, or outright incorrect. This underscores the risks posed by misinformation and the role social media can play in amplifying it.
A worrying new development was the widespread use of drones, which had not played a significant role in previous clashes. Drones – which have altered modern warfare in other theatres, such as the Russia-Ukraine war – will have a major impact on the India-Pakistan conflict moving forward. In recent days, the Indian army stated that Pakistan launched hundreds of drones (allegedly manufactured in Turkey) at military sites along India’s western border. Pakistan’s military has also reported shooting down multiple Indian drones targeting key cities including Karachi.
A Cease Fire, Reports of Violations, and Hopes for Peace
On 10 May 2025, US President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that India and Pakistan had agreed to an immediate ceasefire “after a long night of talks mediated by the United States”.
There had already been a strong international reaction to the rising tensions between India and Pakistan, with widespread calls for de-escalation. Several countries – including the US, China, Turkey, Russia, France, the UK, and the UAE – advocated for caution and a peaceful resolution. Multilateral institutions gave the same response: on 5 May, the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres called for “maximum restraint” from the two nuclear powers, asking them to step “back from the brink”.
According to Trump administration officials – quoted by the media – the US took on a much more active role in de-escalating the conflict after receiving “alarming intelligence”, leading to the belief that there was “a high probability for dramatic escalation” over the weekend. India has subsequently downplayed the role of the US in the ceasefire agreement – portraying it as a direct bilateral agreement – while Pakistan has directly credited the US for its mediation.
Shortly after the deal was finalised, violations by both sides, including more cross border strikes, made the news. However, as of 14 May 2025, the agreement appears to be holding, with military officials from both sides meeting to further discuss key details. This has led to improved investor sentiment and a lifting of India’s equity markets by close to 3% (Indian equities had lost more than USD 80 billion in the days preceding the ceasefire).
Hopes are high that the ceasefire deal will remain in place, reducing the tensions and moving India and Pakistan further away from all-out war, a scenario which risked becoming increasingly realistic in recent days. However, several ongoing diplomatic disputes between the two countries, including India’s suspension of a critical river water sharing agreement between the two nations, may prompt further military action. Pakistan called India’s suspension of the treaty “an act of war”, but the suspension remains in place.
Kashmir is once again occupying headline spots in the news cycle, but despite the high stakes of war around it, this long-running conflict is rarely top of mind for most Western media. These last few days have highlighted how world powers – distracted by internal issues and multiple other crises – must renew their focus on facilitating a political and diplomatic solution for the Kashmir conflict, one that addresses both sides’ grievances and creates a lasting peace. To fail would be catastrophic for both regional and international stability.
Our South Asia team regularly supports clients with political risk analysis, including monthly / quarterly updates on key issues such as this. Please do get in touch to learn more.