Colombia’s Post-Election Investment Risk Landscape

Within Colombian business circles, relief at ADLE’s victory (who beat Petro’s chosen successor) is palpable, and the prospect of increased foreign and domestic investment is clear. Beyond this relief, however, it is not fully apparent as to where opportunities will be most promising for investors, and equally, in a country with high levels of corruption, social unrest and insecurity, where potential risks and pitfalls may lie.

Wallbrook’s experts in Colombia have therefore been speaking to investors, lawyers, and journalists in Colombia about the key investment opportunities and risks going forward. The picture that has emerged from these conversations is that several key sectors, among them infrastructure and financial services, are poised for growth, but that political uncertainty and integrity risks (such as corruption and security threats) should be top of mind for investors in their decision-making.

The Political Picture

ADLE inherits a country in economic trouble. In addition to damage caused by a recent earthquake, the government of former President Gustavo Petro oversaw high inflation, deficits and debt, and a lack of investment in infrastructure projects.

Solving these issues while controlling spending will be a challenge for ADLE. His transition team and new cabinet picks offer suggestions as to the policies he will pursue. ADLE included business figures and corporate lawyers in his transition team, and key cabinet picks such as Vice President José Manuel Restrepo (a former finance minister) and Finance Minister Miguel Gómez Martínez (linked to the center-right Conservative Party) signals a certain orthodoxy with respect to how he will pursue economic policy (for now).

These signals come at an important time for Colombia. It is fiscally constrained, and therefore needs to make itself attractive to foreign and domestic private investors. Following a wave of elections across Latin America that have seen the entry of right-wing governments (such as Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia), Colombia is now competing with a range of countries who have passed laws to lure private capital into large scale projects.

Investment Opportunities

Nonetheless, Wallbrook’s experience on the ground indicates that private investment is poised to accelerate following the election. ADLE is keen to encourage this: he has signaled a reduction in regulation and better conditions for private investment, and revive investment at Colombian state-owned entities (such as energy giant Ecopetrol), who are crucial drivers of Colombia’s economy. The geopolitical picture is also favorable for Colombia: renewed US interest in the Western Hemisphere will likely mean increased interest from private investors, and from public investment agencies such as the US International Development Finance Corporation (which can help to de-risk investment for private investors).

In this vein, several key sectors appear primed for growth.

• Energy. With prices high and Colombia facing a large energy deficit, the government is likely to prioritize oil & gas projects. ADLE has been supportive of fracking and will likely encourage SOEs like Ecopetrol to focus on developing new sources of fuel. Additionally, private companies such as Geopark will likely be assessing aggressive acquisition strategies that will present co-investment opportunities to foreign investors. Moreover, while it has not yet been prioritized by ADLE, renewable energy will be key in coming years. Colombia derives two-thirds of its electricity from hydropower, and El Niño-induced droughts will encourage the development of more solar and wind projects. Colombia has an established renewable energy framework, and with ADLE’s government reassessing ties with China, opportunities will arise for US and European renewables operators.

• Infrastructure. Colombia needs more roads, and better rail, air, and port connectivity. New projects, particularly highways, will require private investors, and Colombia’s major highways will continue to be built under public-private partnerships. Moreover, many of the operators of major highway concessions are large investors like Corficolombiana, which will provide proven local counterparts to foreign investors.

• Tourism. Tourism in Colombia, both domestic and international, continues to increase year-on-year, and reached record levels in 2025. As well as adding to demand for transportation infrastructure, record sums are being spent by tourists – driving demand for new hotels and leisure experiences (many of which are new, upmarket international brand hotels).

• Financial services. is a sector ripe for disruption. Colombia has a handful of large banks that have long dominated the market and are the default providers of a range of financial services. However, high fees and limited digital banking options have seen insurgents move into the sector – such as Brazil’s Nubank, and (soon) Revolut. This trend is likely to continue, as consumer desire for agile digital banking services and increasing option of digital assets open spaces for newcomers to the market.

• Healthcare. During the Petro government, Colombia’s public healthcare system faced a severe funding deficit, and major crises in the delivery of many basic health services. Unsurprisingly, this has driven demand for private health insurance policies, which grew by a record 23% in 2025. In addition to core treatments, both the cosmetic and dental sectors saw growth of over 5% in 2025, in part driven by demand from tourists seeking treatments in Colombia. The growth of this market, alongside its relative fragmentation, presents opportunities for investors.

Potential Pitfalls

Despite the rich opportunities on offer, investors will need to approach Colombia clear eyed about the political and integrity risks that may arise within the next four years.

Indeed, despite widespread relief at ADLE’s victory in the business community, there is little clarity (and little analysis) about the course his government will take. For one, this is because ADLE is an unknown quantity; a political outsider whose campaign manifesto was light on detail. ADLE was an effective campaigner and communicator, but he has publicly stated that he will leave much of the day-to-day running of government to his Vice President, likely so that he can focus on communications and security policy.

With a mix of establishment and unorthodox figures in his cabinet, there is a risk that ADLE will pursue more populist and interventionist policies during the latter half of his presidency if policy results do not quickly materialize. This could manifest in the use of decrees to govern and bypass Congress, increase spending by borrowing more money, and by appointing figures more loyal to him in cabinet and at SOEs.

This risk is real, given the fiscal constraints faced by ADLE (which will make campaign promises harder to meet), and the fact that he lacks a majority in Congress. Under this scenario, a policy of fiscal orthodoxy and stability, the specter of which was so celebrated by investors ADLE’s election win, would be less likely. The left also presented a strong challenge to ADLE in the election and will use its bloc in Congress to block ADLE’s reforms and may encourage protests against major infrastructure projects.

There are integrity risks that investors will need to face too. Some of the sectors of most promise, such as energy, mining, tourism and infrastructure, also overlap with the areas of greatest integrity risk for investors, namely corruption, insecurity, and land use. The development of any project in such sectors requires licenses and contracts, land purchases and prior consultations, and an analysis of security risks. In a country with high levels of corruption, attacks by armed groups, and ongoing processes of land restitution, these matters are delicate; getting the pre-investment stage wrong could incur regulatory scrutiny and social backlash locally.

Best Practices for Investors

The overlaps between opportunities and risks in Colombia thus merit careful attention by investors. A key feature of best practice will be pre-investment risk assessments and due diligence. This should include thorough analysis of key local counterparties and investees for integrity risks such as corruption and political exposure, and an assessment of whether investees’ management teams are skilled enough to identify and navigate political and integrity risks that emerge.

More broadly, investors would be wise to engage in risk mapping exercises and scenario planning. Done in stages, a risk mapping exercise can help investors prioritize key sectors and geographies of interest, identify the major local counterparties involved in that sector/geography, and map out where potential risks may arise. These could be the presence of illegal armed groups threatening the physical security of a mine, pipeline, or hotel, or a known history of protest against certain projects. Investors can then prepare scenarios about how these risks play out, and how to mitigate against them in advance.

Taken together, these steps can help reduce risk for investors. As the rush of investment discussions and optimism gathers following ADLE’s inauguration, investors would be wise to plan ahead.